Cliometrics

Background

Cliometrics, often referred to as “new economic history,” entails the utilization of quantitative methods, akin to those used in economics and statistics, to analyze economic history. Its name is derived from Clio, the muse of history in Greek mythology. By leveraging statistical techniques, cliometrics brings rigorous data analysis and empirical validation to historical economic questions.

Historical Context

The term ‘cliometrics’ was coined in the late 1950s and gained prominence in the 1960s largely due to the work of economists like Robert Fogel and Douglass North, who later won the Nobel Prize in Economics for their contributions. This approach marked a shift away from purely narrative histories toward more modeled, data-driven studies, integrating economic theories and historical information rigorously.

Definitions and Concepts

Cliometrics combines the methodological rigors of econometrics with the expansive scope of economic history. It seeks to quantify historical transformations, evaluate underlying economic hypotheses, and derive causal inferences about historical economic processes and outcomes.

Major Analytical Frameworks

Classical Economics

Classical economists, prior to the cliometrics revolution, mainly relied on qualitative narrative accounts and static models which lacked dynamic, data-driven analysis.

Neoclassical Economics

Cliometric analysis often employs neoclassical models, applying them to historical data to assess past economic conditions, offering novel insights into aspects like labor productivity, market integration, and technology adoption.

Keynesian Economic

While not the primary framework for cliometrics, Keynesian models have been used to quantitatively study depression-era economies and wartime economics through historical GDP and fiscal policies data.

Marxian Economics

Cliometricians have utilized quantitative data to critically analyze Marxian theories, offering empirical insights into industrial dynamics, capital accumulation, and class struggles.

Institutional Economics

Cliometrics often intersects with institutional economics by precisely measuring and assessing the impacts of institutions, laws, and regulations on economic history using quantitative data.

Behavioral Economics

Behavioral cliometrics applies the principles of behavioral economics to historical contexts, analyzing how psychological factors influenced economic behaviors in historical settings.

Post-Keynesian Economics

This subfield examines structural changes in the economy over decades, using cliometric methods to analyze income distribution, employment trends, and economic cycles retrospectively.

Austrian Economics

While Austrian economists typically prefer qualitative analyses, cliometricians may quantify empirical evidence concerning business cycles, capital theory, and entrepreneurship for historical cohorts.

Development Economics

Cliometrics provides rich, historical quantitative data necessary to evaluatively understand long-term economic development, growth patterns, and transitions from agrarian to industrial economies.

Monetarism

Using cliometric models, scholars have explored historical monetary phenomena, examining data on money supply, inflation rates, and central banking policies’ impacts on historical economies.

Comparative Analysis

The comparative aspect of cliometrics is notable as it allows for the calibration of theoretical models against historical data, often highlighting discrepancies, validating economic predictions, or offering robust criticisms of existing theories.

Case Studies

The United States Railroads: Fogel’s analysis of the railroad’s impact on American economic growth.
Agricultural Productivity in Europe: Quantitative assessments of agricultural pearls in pre-industrial societies.
GDP Growth Measurement: Historical data analysis on productivity and GDP growth during the Industrial Revolution.

Suggested Books for Further Studies

“Time on the Cross” by Robert William Fogel and Stanley L. Engerman
“The Rise of the Western World: A New Economic History” by Douglass C. North and Robert Paul Thomas
“Cliometrics of the Family” edited by Claude Diebolt and Faustine Perrin

Econometrics: The quantitative analysis of economic phenomena using statistical methods.
Economic History: The study of economies or economic phenomena in the past.
Quantitative Methods: Statistical, mathematical, or computational techniques utilized to analyze data.